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Predicting User Success: Early Behavior Analysis for Zerve Retention

baba007
January 24, 2026

About

Analyzing 409K+ Zerve user events to predict long-term success from first 7 days of behavior.

KEY FINDINGS:

- 85% of users leave after Day 1 (The 85% Problem)

- Heavy agent users (20+) are 5.5x more likely to succeed

- High Day-1 activity predicts CHURN, not success (Burnout Effect)

- Users who wait before using agent succeed more (Timing Paradox)


METHODOLOGY:

- Logistic Regression + Random Forest (98% accuracy)

- K-Means user segmentation

- Cohort analysis & dose-response modeling

- 12+ professional visualizations


DELIVERABLES:

- Deployed predict_user_success() function

- 6 actionable product recommendations

- Complete reproducible analysis pipeline

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